Why SEO is a Game of Poker, Not Chess
Why SEO is a Game of Poker, Not Chess
Recent attention to the leak of some of Google’s search APIs has me rethinking this chess analogy. Instead, I think a poker comparison is far more apt.
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In most of my previous writing, I have advocated creating an SEO strategy as the first step toward any SEO effort. In that process, I have likened SEO to developing a chess strategy because, just like chess, SEO should not be executed one step at a time, but it should have a forward-looking (or even backward-looking) view of each step and what it ladders into.
The recent attention to the leak of some of Google’s search APIs has me rethinking this chess analogy. Instead, I think a poker comparison is far more apt.
A word of caution here: I am far from a poker expert, but I know what I don’t know, precisely the point I want to make.
Poker is dynamic
Winning at poker is a mix of luck and skill. A person with solid poker skills can lose to a less skilled player because of luck, and an unskilled player can beat a professional player.
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However, luck is finite, and it would be statistically rare for an unskilled person to keep winning hand after hand and game after game because of luck.
The luck factor
It’s essential to define that luck in the case of poker is not the spiritual or superstitious type that results from waking up on the right side of the bed or wearing the right clothes; it is a catch-all to explain all the unknowns, like how other players will play their hands, how the cards are shuffled, and the hands of the others at the table. These are all hard factors, not esoteric; they can never be calculated while making a playing decision and will likely never be known after the hand is over unless all opponents show their hand.
SEO as poker
And now, for the parallel to SEO: I have seen many sites with every possible best practice integrated into them, but they fail to achieve their desired level of organic traffic. Conversely, I have seen sites with seemingly awful SEO but still have excellent visibility. Why? Luck, aka the unknowns that will always be unknown.
Just like in poker, the results of a hand are the total of all the knowns. In the case of poker, it is skill at playing the hand you are dealt. In SEO, it’s best practices and the unknowns.
In poker, the quantifiable unknowns are relatively short (there are only 52 cards in a deck). As a result, successful poker players can apply statistical odds to their knowns and then use those odds to calculate a bet. In SEO, the potential unknowns are far more significant. (Instead of 52 cards, there are thousands of individual variables). We could list all the possible unknowns, like algorithmic factors, competition, and user behavior, but we would still not have a complete list.
Even with every possible signal we could come up with, there are likely more factored into the total result, and we have no idea they exist.
Regardless, we can’t just give up and leave SEO to chance. We need to play the hand we are dealt with with the skills we have. Now, let’s discuss using a poker strategy to win at SEO.
Accrue as many knowns as you can;
Poker players make decisions based on the cards in their hands and limited information about their opponents. Similarly, SEO professionals often have to work with incomplete data about search engine algorithms.
Look at site data for your competitors and understand what works and doesn’t work for them. (Similarweb can even help you figure out what converts).
Follow best practices as a foundation:
Google (and many others) share SEO best practices. It’s surprising how many people don’t follow them.
Any poker player with any hope of winning has memorized their best practices. (I am deliberately not linking to poker sites, but Google it.)
Adapt strategies in real-time
Best practices and strategy documents are written for the ideal scenarios
Be prepared to adapt to the changing realities FAST.
Know when to raise
In poker, you raise your bet to force an opponent into an action.
In SEO, raising means extending an investment for greater returns or because you want to force a competitor to follow you down a fool’s errand.
Raising is a strategic decision in poker, and SEO investment increases should be considered the same.
Know when to call/check
In poker, “calling” matches your opponent's bet to stay in the hand. It is a lower confidence bet than a raise, but it is still a bet.
“Checking” is when you decline to raise and wait to see what an opponent does.
In SEO, knowing when to maintain an investment without increasing or decreasing is critical.
Know when to fold
Knowing when to fold in poker is potentially the most critical skill a professional player has because, many times, a hand can’t win.
Folding in SEO is similarly a critical skill most ignore. Too many sites send good budgets after bad when a site is penalized and don’t bother updating their strategies.
Don’t overestimate your abilities:
Poker players who play often know that they will lose more hands than they will ever win, but their goal is to win more money on those wins than on the losses.
The same is true in SEO. The best marketers know their skills are limited against an invisible algorithm or competitor plans. They will not always be successful, but their goal is to be more successful than unsuccessful.
Leveraging Data and Analytics:
In both SEO and poker, one must deeply understand the game and its rules and the ability to execute complex strategies precisely.
Run and document your experiments to increase your data, which is your real secret weapon.
Always be learning:
Even the world’s greatest poker players know that there is always something to learn from others they play. Strategies and best practices in poker and SEO are constantly evolving.
To stay ahead of the game, you must learn new techniques and continuously adapt your approach. Attend conferences, take courses, and follow the right thought leaders.
Don’t gamble what you can’t lose:
Professional poker players are not gambling. They are making strategic bets that they have reason to believe that they could win.
SEO should be just as strategic, and risky moves should never be undertaken when the loss is too significant.
Both poker and SEO require a delicate balance of strategy, risk management, adaptability, and a deep understanding of the underlying mechanics. As poker players must carefully read the table and make calculated bets, SEO must navigate the ever-changing landscape of search engine algorithms and competitor actions.
Patience, perseverance, and a willingness to learn from failures are essential in both domains. Ultimately, success in SEO, like success in poker, comes down to honing one's skills, maximizing limited information, and making smart, data-driven decisions that position you for long-term growth.
By drawing on the lessons of the poker table, SEO practitioners can develop a sharper, more nuanced approach to their craft, positioning themselves for enduring triumph in the high-stakes marketing world.
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