After IO: The SEO evolution from AI
Google has fundamentally changed how SEO will work forever
This week’s newsletter is sponsored by North Star Inbound and Profound.
Two years ago, I predicted that the launch of AI Overviews, then called Search Generative Experience, would bring an SEO apocalypse. I was wrong. The apocalypse didn’t happen at the launch, but it eventually arrived as Google began rolling out AI Overviews to more queries.
Last week, when I assumed Google would launch AI Mode to a broad audience, I again predicted an apocalypse. I was wrong again. There won’t be an apocalypse; this is SEO Armageddon. (If you want to understand the nuances between apocalypse and Armageddon, ask your favorite AI chatbot.
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As I had thought, Google did launch AI Mode, but I wasn’t expecting the rest of what they announced at IO, which will have an even greater impact on SEO. That's why it's time for anyone who relies on SEO traffic to pivot immediately.
If this is as far as you read, I will put the TL;DR right here:
SEO traffic will plummet, but this is less valuable if an AI response could easily replace it. There is still plenty of valuable traffic to be had if you pivot, and for the longer version, I went into more detail on this on Lenny’s Podcast some months ago.
AI mode
AI mode is Google’s answer to ChatGPT. If you thought Google already had an answer to ChatGPT with Gemini, this is their attempt at a knockout punch. AI Mode will give complete answers to questions, show comparisons, and even have data visualization.
While Gemini was comparable to ChatGPT and other LLMs, it still required users to use a new app or go to a new URL. AI mode brings it into the Google search that users are already habituated to using.
At IO, I chatted with a PM who works on AI Mode. When I asked her why users would ever click off of AI Mode for many query types, she admitted that they might not. In her words, “search has evolved.” This will lead to extreme drops in traffic for top-of-funnel queries.
For now, Google has released the AI mode feature by default to all US-based users, but it still requires an extra click to bring up AI Mode. Many users might do that, but it will take time. This means that the utter collapse of Google traffic will be on a slow decline.
Just be warned that if Google feels threatened by any of its LLM competitors, it will fast-track the visibility of AI mode and even force it on users without a click. This is Google's nuclear option, and it is no longer as risky to Google as it once was because it has launched monetization in AI.
Personal Context
Google has dabbled in personalization for many years, but they determined that it wasn’t that useful because the level of personalization didn’t justify the effort. That has now changed. Google is launching personal context, which will pull in everything Google knows about you from all your other Google touchpoints.
This means a query like “best movies to watch on Netflix” will now be based not just on past click behavior but also on movie tickets you purchased through your Gmail account, YouTube videos you have watched, and even movie references from friends in your Google messages.
On the local side, a query like “best pizza near me” will do the same. It won’t just look at past click behavior or reviews; it will take into account your personal tastes based on everything Google knows about you from your entire Google interaction history, not just search.
Longer queries
Anyone who has ever dabbled in SEO knows the concept of head keywords vs long tail keywords, and they probably even quote the Google stat about how 15% of all queries are new to Google. Google’s announcements referred to “harder queries” coming in due to AI, where people ask more detailed questions.
At IO, I specifically asked multiple product managers if this means that the 15% number is no longer accurate, but they declined to answer. Regardless, I would have to assume it’s no longer true, which means that the long tail is so long that it’s not logical to research or plan for them.
Even worse, for privacy reasons, Google aggregates and hides many queries in Google Search Console, so it isn’t possible to know which long-tail keyword efforts are successful. The number of hidden keywords is assumed to be around 20%, which aligns with the assumption of 15% new queries.
This isn't good for reporting if the hidden keywords are correlated to new queries.
This means that if that 15% number rises to 50%, Google will now hide more than half the queries to your site. If you thought SEO operated in a vacuum before, hang on tight.
The era of 2-3-word phrases/keyword targets as the primary SEO method is over.
The advanced capabilities of our devices and the progress of AI in search allow users to search in many more ways than just typing short phrases into a search box. Google is increasing how users can search, whether with their voice, cameras, or, coming soon, conversation dialogues. With the advancements in hardware and software, how users search will continue to grow. Again, this moves us away from the traditional way of doing SEO.
How to pivot
The answer to these changes will align with what I published in my book, Product-Led SEO, and what I write frequently in this newsletter: target real users, not keywords. Keywords were always a proxy for human buyers, but as search engines improved and users got smarter, they became an imperfect proxy.
The loss of top-of-funnel traffic and keyword visibility from Google Search Console matters far less when you are aligned with your customers and know you are converting them into sales.
To properly do SEO, you must consider how someone might build a business offline. Offline companies don’t have proxies. They build brands, create relationships, and learn from their customers.
Next week’s newsletter will include a detailed guide on where to focus SEO efforts, so if you are reading this without being a subscriber, please subscribe.
SEO leaders who can build SEO by thinking like product managers are poised to succeed in this new paradigm.
Final thoughts
Google demonstrated some other new products that will also have a fundamental impact on SEO, and I will devote future newsletters to them. Agentic AI with Project Mariner could have deep implications for how users discover solutions on the Internet, but it still does not negate the need for SEO. Without any SEO efforts, the agents, like traditional algorithms, will have a hard time discovering the products.
Similarly, AI Mode shopping experiences and Try-on will also need SEO support to be visible in these new tools. Now is the time to communicate to leadership that search has fundamentally changed and will never return to the pre-AI way of doing things.
The SEO playbook may be changing, but SEO's role isn’t going away. The SEO team must ensure visibility in these new mediums, and the complexity of the new evolved search makes SEO more valuable than ever.
There is only an SEO apocalypse or Armageddon if you insist on retaining the old way of doing SEO, but unless you believe that users will stop searching, SEO will always exist.
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I’m wondering if all these changes make the title SEO obsolete. I asked AI mode to help me understand what a role might be called that intersects all these various skills, and it answered AI Product Marketing Manager/Director.
What are your thoughts on that? Retire SEO? If so, pick a different title that describes the skills needed to succeed instead of merely rebranding to GEO or similar like some people suggest?