AI in search results isn't that big of a deal for users, yet
AI in search results isn't that big of a deal for users, yet
But its going to massively impact search engine profits
In 2010 Google ran a commercial during the Superbowl that shows the trajectory of a user beginning to search for study abroad and then progresses to the searcher falling in love and ends with the searcher learning how to assemble a crib.
See that commercial here:
Even though this commercial is 13 years old, I still believe this represents the linear path people take when using a search engine of any type to discover information and then make decisions.
Many of the hundreds of occasions where we turn to search engines follow a sort of funnel that progresses over time from that first extremely broad search which then narrows down over time to something more specific.
Take a moment to think about all the occasions where you aren’t just looking up a quick piece of info like "who won the Superbowl in 2019”? (the Chiefs) or “What’s the weather this weekend”. Think about those times where you look up something you are curious about and then it brings you down that rabbit hole of more searches.
In my opinion, ( and I do want to hear yours), AI results whether they are from Bing, ChatGPT or Google only address the very bottom of the funnel when you have already done enough research to ask for a specific query.
You can reflect on specific queries you might have done, but here are two recent examples of my own search journeys.
While planning a summer vacation without any pre-determined destination, an AI result isn’t going to be very helpful because I don’t yet have any criteria. This type of research would be far better in a search engine where I can click on various results and by reading others reports and experiences get a better sense of where to go. Once I have narrowed down exactly what I might be looking for I can pose the question to the AI engine for an answer based on the requirements I have discovered.
I am looking for a new computer and other than budget I am not sure yet of other requirements. Again, this search would begin by reading content produced by reviewers, manufacturers and retailers where I would end up with a better idea of what would be the best fit for you. At the end I could then pose the question to an AI tool about what would be best fit based on my discoveries.
Monetization
Herein is the biggest problem for search engines. Much of the profits that search engines make on advertising comes from people that have a good idea of what they are looking for. Unlike on social media where you get interrupted by advertising, on search there is a lot of intent behind every click. Search ads help accelerate buyers to the bottom of their discovery funnel and the advertisers are willing to compensate the engines for that.
The search engines can monetize their results because users are clicking a lot more than that one final result. They click lots of ads that may or may not lead them to a conversion, but regardless the search engine gets paid.
If the bottom of the funnel is solved by AI with a very specific solution, there is much less room for advertising. The engines could potentially charge for the direct click, kind of like Google Flights gets paid on flight search but even if the advertiser don’t pay for the click at that point they might still get the sale. (I personally do lots of searches on Google Flights that rarely end up as a direct revenue conversion for Google). Selling this advertising is going to be a much harder value prop and it will certainly weigh on profits.
The jury is still out on how useful AI results will be for the average user, but either way no search engine can afford to site this out. The engines from Bing to Google to even Neeva will race to implement it at great risk to their bottom lines while they learn how useful the tool even is.
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