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It’s almost 2024, so here are some of my predictions for what will happen in marketing next year.
I will be the first to admit that much of these ideas are wishful thinking and I don’t have solid data, however I really hope they come true. If you have your predictions or counterthoughts to my predictions, I would love to hear from you.
SGE will kill 50% of traffic
As I shared in a newsletter a couple of weeks ago, SGE will likely launch early in the new year, and I think it will be the most impactful event for SEO ever. For some websites, it will decimate traffic by 80-90%, while for others, it will only impact 10-15%. Even that 10-15% will be impactful, so make sure you have a strategy to account for the changes in search. z
SEO finally moves into product
As a result of SGE and overall changes in the landscape of SEO, leadership is demanding more significant and more impactful SEO strategies. This will force SEO to end up more closely aligned with the product rather than just the content teams.
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Attention-grabbing emails are crucial for Digital PR success.
In this video, I reveal the email that got us links in TechRadar, PCMag, and many other news outlets for our hosting client.
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READ MOREDemand for SEO talent explodes by 200%
There is a severe talent gap when it comes to skilled SEO, and I think that gets even bigger once SGE hits and companies scramble for strategists and leaders who can help grow search traffic. Look for a big bump in job requisitions for senior SEO people.Google will publicly announce that guest posts pass no-value
Google is always dancing around the idea that links need to be important, but they never came straight out and said guest posts are a waste of money. I think in a moment of frustration, this will happen. Follow your favorite Googlers on Twitter, and it will happen.
The SEO tool stack will completely change
With SEO severely impacted by SGE, the very metrics by which searches are measured will change. Most of today’s tool stack is focused on keywords and backlinks, which are going to be less critical in the world of search.
Chat GPT will launch a search engine
Google is paranoid that ChatGPT will take away market share because as an information source, generative AI is a solid competitor to search engines, but there is still a massive need for search. If ChatGPT had its own native search engine, it would allow it to compete squarely with Google.
Ads inventory will contract with SGE
One of the the reasons that I believe Google held back from launching SGE is because they have not figured out the best way to monetize it. Inevitably a change in search layouts will lead to revenuee changes for Google and they want to minimize it. I think this doesn’t just affect Google’s revenue, but it will also impact total ad inventory as users are pushed into different query funnels, many of which can’t be monetized. I expect overall impressions to decline and prices to increase for advertisers as the auction shrinks.
TikTok will get sanctioned
The previous administration got very close to forcing ByteDance to divest from TikTok, but it never happened. I think as the USA and the West come into more conflict overlaps with China, this will become more of a national security and competitive risk. I don’t know how, but I expect a renewed focus on squashing TikTok’s power from a regulatory standpoint.Congress will investigate YouTube for antitrust
The DOJ wasn’t as successful at prosecuting Google for Antitrust as they had hoped, but that’s because Google is only a monopoly. After all, it never had a powerful competitor. Youtube is entirely different. There are many great resources for video, and Google puts its thumb on the scale to boost YouTube in search, and I think this is the year that DOJ notices.
The economy will recover
While we never entered an actual economist-defined recession, it certainly felt like one with many people, especially in tech, being laid off and inflation rising at rates that were hard to ignore. I think 2024 will be a much better year economically, given all the changes in tech that will cause renewed investment and economic activity. It also helps that it’s an election year, and the incentives are aligned for politicians to boost economic activity.
Thank you to all of you who read my newsletter and for being a subscriber.
Happy New Year, and have a great 2024!